Impact of Macroeconomics Variables on Exports in Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37134/jcit.vol10.sp.5.2020Keywords:
Export, FDI, Import, Inflation, Crude oil, Exchange rateAbstract
Exports play an essential role in the world economy. Therefore, it is important to identify the determinants of exports and it is important for policymakers as increased productivity and international trade are important for each country. This paper examines the determinants of exports in Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand. This study is intended to estimate the impact of import, exchange rate, FDI, inflation and Crude oil on export. Three different econometric techniques such as Levin, Lin and Chu test; also, it has been used three different models for panel data estimation namely Pooled OLS, Random Effect and Fixed Effect. Apart from these techniques, different diagnostic tests have also been applied on the secondary data ranging from 1981-2016 which collected from World Bank. The results of the study show that import and exchange rate are positively and significantly related with export in Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand whereas FDI has a significantly negative effect. To sum up, the study concluded that in order to stimulate exports, governments or policymakers should provide peace and political stability between the four countries and the surrounding region in order to obtain more investors.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
Abidin, I.S.Z., & Sahlan, R. (2013). The determinants of exports between Malaysia and the OIC member countries: A gravity model approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 12-19.
Ahmed, S., & Mortaza, G. (2005). Inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper Series: WP, 604.
Alam, R. (2010). The Link between real exchange rate and export earning: A cointegration and Granger causality analysis on Bangladesh. International Review of Business Research Papers, 6(1), 205-214.
Alavinasab, S.M. (2014). Determinants of inflation: The case of Iran. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 1(1), 71-77.
Arize, A.C. (2002). Imports and exports in 50 countries: tests of cointegration and structural breaks. International Review of Economics & Finance, 11(1), 101-115.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Rhee, H.J. (1997). Are imports and exports of Korea cointegrated?. International Economic Journal, 11(1), 109-114.
Baltagi, B.H. (2001). Econometric analysis of panel data (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Banga, R. (2007). Explaining Asian outward FDI. In ARTNeT Consultative Meeting on Trade and Investment Policy Coordination, Bangkok, 16 –17.
Berman, N., Martin, P., & Mayer, T. (2012). How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(1), 437-492.
Bernard, A.B., & Jensen, J.B. (2004). Why some firms export. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(2), 561-569.
Bruno, M., & Easrerly, W. (1998). Inflation crisis and long run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), 3-26.
Celik, T. (2011). Long Run Relationship between Export and Import: Evidence from Turkey for the period of 1990-2010. In International Conference on Applied Economics, 119-123.
Choong, C.K., Baharumshah, A.Z., Yusop, Z., & Habibullah, M.S. (2010). Private capital flows, stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis. Japan and the World Economy, 22(2), 107-117.
Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J.G. (2004). Econometric theory and methods (Vol. 5). New York: Oxford University Press.
De Mello, L.R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford Economic Papers, 51(1), 133-151.
Dexter, A.S., Levi, M.D., & Nault, B.R. (2005). International trade and the connection between excess demand and inflation. Review of International Economics, 13(4), 699-708.
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2001). Macroeconomics, (8th Edition). New York: McGraw Hill.
Drabble, J.H. (2004). The economic history of Malaysia. EH.Net Encyclopedia. edited by Robert Whaples. Retrieved from
http://eh.net/encyclopedia/economic-history-of-malaysia/
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305-316.
Ekmekcioglu, E. (2012). The macroeconomic effects of world crude oil price changes. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(6), 268-272.
Ferderer, J.P. (1996). Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1), 1-26.
Guru-Gharana, K.K. (2012). Econometric investigation of relationships among export, FDI and growth in India: An application of Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkephol Granger causality test. The Journal of Developing Areas, 46(2), 231-247.
Gylfason, T. (1998). Output gains from economic stabilization. Journal of Development Economics, 56(1), 81-96.
Hamilton, J.D. (2009). Understanding crude oil prices. The Energy Journal, 30(2), 179–206.
Herwartz, H., & Plödt, M. (2016). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 61(2), 30-44.
Jayathileke, P.M.B., & Rathnayake, R.M.K.T. (2013). Testing the link between inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Asia. Modern Economy, 4, 87-92.
Jiranyakul, K. (2006). The Impact of international oil prices on industrial production: the case of Thailand. NIDA Economic Review, 1(2), 35-42.
Joshi, R. (2005). International marketing. New Delhi and New York: Oxford University Press.
Kabir, S., & Salim, R.A. (2014). Regional economic integration in ASEAN: how far will it go?. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 31(2), 313-335.
Kemal, M.A., & Qadir, U. (2005). Real exchange rate, exports, and imports movements: A trivariate analysis. The Pakistan Development Review, 45, 177-195.
Li, H., Ma, H., & Xu, Y. (2011). How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports. Retrieved from
https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wpcontent/uploads/migrados/WP_0916_tcm348-212762.pdf
Liu, Q., Lu, Y., & Zhou, Y. 2014. Do exports respond to exchange rate changes? Inference from China's Exchange Rate Reform. Retrieved from
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/events/conferenc s/trade13/er_disconnect_puzzle_liu.pdf
Mátyás, L., & Sevestre, P. (2008). The econometrics of panel data: fundamentals and recent developments in theory and practice. Springer Science and Business Media.
Mehrara, M., & Sarem, M. (2009). Effects of oil price shocks on industrial production: evidence from some oil-exporting countries. OPEC Energy review, 33(3), 170-183.
Melitz, M.J., & Ottaviano, G. (2008). Market Size, Trade, and Productivity. Review of Economic Studies, 75, 295-316.
Moran, T.H. (1998). Foreign direct investment and development: the new policy agenda for developing countries and economies in transition. Institute of International Economics: Washington DC.
Mukhtar, T., & Rasheed, S. (2010). Testing long run relationship between exports and imports: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 31(1), 41-58.
Narayan, S., & Narayan, P.K. (2004). Determinants of demand for Fiji's exports: an empirical investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.
Nguyen, D.T.H., & Sun, S. (2012). FDI and domestic firms’ export behaviour: Evidence from Vietnam. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 31(3), 380-390.
Pardede, S.M. (2011). Towards an economic community: In South East Asia. International Trade Forum, 4, 20-21.
Paul, S., Kearney, C., & Chowdhury, K. (1997). Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1387-1401.
Rasiah, R. (1998). The export manufacturing experience of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand: Lessons for Africa. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Rasiah, R., Kaur, K., & Kumar, A. (2010). Does firm size matter in export, technology, and marketing activities of Indian garment firms?. Asian Journal of Technology Innovation, 18(1), 45-71.
Saaed, A.A. (2007). Inflation and economic growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005-Evidence from co-integration and error correction model. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 7(1), 143-155.
Stilianos, F., & Jyh-Lin, W. (1999). Are the US current account deficits really sustainable?. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51-58.
Stylianou, T. (2014). Dynamic relationship between growth, foreign direct investment and exports in the US: an approach with structural breaks. The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, 13(2), 1-15.
Tiwari, A.K., & Kalita, M. (2011). Governance and foreign aid in ASIAN countries. Economics Bulletin, 31(1), 453-465.
Van Win Coop, E., & Yi, K.M. (2000). Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?. Economic Policy Review, 6(3), 51-70.
Wong, K.N., Tang, T.C., & Fausten, D.K. (2009). Foreign direct investment and services trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore. Global Economic Review, 38(3), 265-276.
Zakaria, N.A., Rahim, H.A., & Merous, N.H. (2012). The impact of exchange rate on Malaysia wood export. International Journal of Business and Technopreneurship, 2(3), 511-520.
Ahmed, S., & Mortaza, G. (2005). Inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper Series: WP, 604.
Alam, R. (2010). The Link between real exchange rate and export earning: A cointegration and Granger causality analysis on Bangladesh. International Review of Business Research Papers, 6(1), 205-214.
Alavinasab, S.M. (2014). Determinants of inflation: The case of Iran. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 1(1), 71-77.
Arize, A.C. (2002). Imports and exports in 50 countries: tests of cointegration and structural breaks. International Review of Economics & Finance, 11(1), 101-115.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Rhee, H.J. (1997). Are imports and exports of Korea cointegrated?. International Economic Journal, 11(1), 109-114.
Baltagi, B.H. (2001). Econometric analysis of panel data (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Banga, R. (2007). Explaining Asian outward FDI. In ARTNeT Consultative Meeting on Trade and Investment Policy Coordination, Bangkok, 16 –17.
Berman, N., Martin, P., & Mayer, T. (2012). How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(1), 437-492.
Bernard, A.B., & Jensen, J.B. (2004). Why some firms export. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(2), 561-569.
Bruno, M., & Easrerly, W. (1998). Inflation crisis and long run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), 3-26.
Celik, T. (2011). Long Run Relationship between Export and Import: Evidence from Turkey for the period of 1990-2010. In International Conference on Applied Economics, 119-123.
Choong, C.K., Baharumshah, A.Z., Yusop, Z., & Habibullah, M.S. (2010). Private capital flows, stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis. Japan and the World Economy, 22(2), 107-117.
Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J.G. (2004). Econometric theory and methods (Vol. 5). New York: Oxford University Press.
De Mello, L.R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford Economic Papers, 51(1), 133-151.
Dexter, A.S., Levi, M.D., & Nault, B.R. (2005). International trade and the connection between excess demand and inflation. Review of International Economics, 13(4), 699-708.
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2001). Macroeconomics, (8th Edition). New York: McGraw Hill.
Drabble, J.H. (2004). The economic history of Malaysia. EH.Net Encyclopedia. edited by Robert Whaples. Retrieved from
http://eh.net/encyclopedia/economic-history-of-malaysia/
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305-316.
Ekmekcioglu, E. (2012). The macroeconomic effects of world crude oil price changes. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(6), 268-272.
Ferderer, J.P. (1996). Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1), 1-26.
Guru-Gharana, K.K. (2012). Econometric investigation of relationships among export, FDI and growth in India: An application of Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkephol Granger causality test. The Journal of Developing Areas, 46(2), 231-247.
Gylfason, T. (1998). Output gains from economic stabilization. Journal of Development Economics, 56(1), 81-96.
Hamilton, J.D. (2009). Understanding crude oil prices. The Energy Journal, 30(2), 179–206.
Herwartz, H., & Plödt, M. (2016). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 61(2), 30-44.
Jayathileke, P.M.B., & Rathnayake, R.M.K.T. (2013). Testing the link between inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Asia. Modern Economy, 4, 87-92.
Jiranyakul, K. (2006). The Impact of international oil prices on industrial production: the case of Thailand. NIDA Economic Review, 1(2), 35-42.
Joshi, R. (2005). International marketing. New Delhi and New York: Oxford University Press.
Kabir, S., & Salim, R.A. (2014). Regional economic integration in ASEAN: how far will it go?. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 31(2), 313-335.
Kemal, M.A., & Qadir, U. (2005). Real exchange rate, exports, and imports movements: A trivariate analysis. The Pakistan Development Review, 45, 177-195.
Li, H., Ma, H., & Xu, Y. (2011). How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports. Retrieved from
https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wpcontent/uploads/migrados/WP_0916_tcm348-212762.pdf
Liu, Q., Lu, Y., & Zhou, Y. 2014. Do exports respond to exchange rate changes? Inference from China's Exchange Rate Reform. Retrieved from
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/events/conferenc s/trade13/er_disconnect_puzzle_liu.pdf
Mátyás, L., & Sevestre, P. (2008). The econometrics of panel data: fundamentals and recent developments in theory and practice. Springer Science and Business Media.
Mehrara, M., & Sarem, M. (2009). Effects of oil price shocks on industrial production: evidence from some oil-exporting countries. OPEC Energy review, 33(3), 170-183.
Melitz, M.J., & Ottaviano, G. (2008). Market Size, Trade, and Productivity. Review of Economic Studies, 75, 295-316.
Moran, T.H. (1998). Foreign direct investment and development: the new policy agenda for developing countries and economies in transition. Institute of International Economics: Washington DC.
Mukhtar, T., & Rasheed, S. (2010). Testing long run relationship between exports and imports: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 31(1), 41-58.
Narayan, S., & Narayan, P.K. (2004). Determinants of demand for Fiji's exports: an empirical investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.
Nguyen, D.T.H., & Sun, S. (2012). FDI and domestic firms’ export behaviour: Evidence from Vietnam. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 31(3), 380-390.
Pardede, S.M. (2011). Towards an economic community: In South East Asia. International Trade Forum, 4, 20-21.
Paul, S., Kearney, C., & Chowdhury, K. (1997). Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1387-1401.
Rasiah, R. (1998). The export manufacturing experience of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand: Lessons for Africa. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Rasiah, R., Kaur, K., & Kumar, A. (2010). Does firm size matter in export, technology, and marketing activities of Indian garment firms?. Asian Journal of Technology Innovation, 18(1), 45-71.
Saaed, A.A. (2007). Inflation and economic growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005-Evidence from co-integration and error correction model. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 7(1), 143-155.
Stilianos, F., & Jyh-Lin, W. (1999). Are the US current account deficits really sustainable?. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51-58.
Stylianou, T. (2014). Dynamic relationship between growth, foreign direct investment and exports in the US: an approach with structural breaks. The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, 13(2), 1-15.
Tiwari, A.K., & Kalita, M. (2011). Governance and foreign aid in ASIAN countries. Economics Bulletin, 31(1), 453-465.
Van Win Coop, E., & Yi, K.M. (2000). Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?. Economic Policy Review, 6(3), 51-70.
Wong, K.N., Tang, T.C., & Fausten, D.K. (2009). Foreign direct investment and services trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore. Global Economic Review, 38(3), 265-276.
Zakaria, N.A., Rahim, H.A., & Merous, N.H. (2012). The impact of exchange rate on Malaysia wood export. International Journal of Business and Technopreneurship, 2(3), 511-520.
Downloads
Published
2020-07-30
How to Cite
Sieng, L. W., Alimawi, M. Y. S., & Baharin, R. (2020). Impact of Macroeconomics Variables on Exports in Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand. Journal of Contemporary Issues and Thought, 10, 46–57. https://doi.org/10.37134/jcit.vol10.sp.5.2020
Issue
Section
Articles
