Climate Change and Aman Rice Yield Nexus in the North-Western Part of Bangladesh: Using Quantile Regression

  • Md. Mehedi Hasan Manik Marketing Insights, ACI Limited
  • Md. Touhidul Alam University of Dhaka
  • Md. Sajib Hossain BKMEA
Keywords: Climate Change, Agricultural Production Of Bangladesh, Quantile Regression


Aman is a rain-fed crop that is the second-largest rice crop in Bangladesh in general and in particular, in the study area with respect to the volume of production. It also carries significant value in the case of food security as well as livelihood options for many farmers. At this backdrop, the study focuses on exploring the relationship between climate change variables (Average Maximum Temperature, Average Minimum Temperature, Total rainfall,  Average Relative Humidity) and Yield of Aman in Bogra and Joypurhat districts of Bangladesh. In this case, quantile regression at the median is used to examine climate change and Aman rice interrelations using time series data from 1969 to 2013. The findings of the study reveal that Average Maximum Temperature and Total Rainfall has a positive impact on the Aman yield production in the study area. Considering the future severe adverse effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, and employment aspects in the study area, the study, therefore, recommends the concerned authorities to strengthen their efforts to develop, and distribute of drought-tolerant  HYV of Aman rice among the farmers at an affordable rate.  Meanwhile, the farmers should be encouraged to cultivate drought-tolerant and less water-fed crops.


ADB (Asian Development Bank). (2014). Bangladesh could see climate change losses reach over 9% of GDP – Report. Retrieved 6 September 2019 from

Agrawala, S., Ota, T., Ahmed, A.U., Smith, J., & Aalst, M.V. (2003). Development and climate change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and The Sundarbans. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) study, Paris, France. Retrieved on September 15, 2019 from

Amin, M. R., Zhang, J., & Yang, M. (2015). Effects of climate change on the yield and cropping area of major food crops: A case of Bangladesh. Sustainability, 7, 898-915. doi: 10.3390/su7010898

Arltova, M., & Fedorova, D. (2016). Selection of Unit root test on the basis of length of the time series and value of AR(1) parameter. Statistika, 96(3), 47-64.
Assaduzzman, M., & Anik, A.R. (2017). Climatic influence on rice production: A panel data analysis. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). Available at

Banglapedia (National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh). (2014). Climatic zone. Available at

BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). (2016). Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics-2015. Statistics & Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Retrieved 10 September 2019 from

BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). (2018a). Labour Force Survey 2016-17. Statistics Divison, Ministry of Planning. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Retrieved 7, September, 2019 from

BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). (2018b). National accounts statistics. Statistics & informatics divison, ministry of planning. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Retrieved 7 Septemeber, 2019 from

Faisal, I.M., & Parvin, S. (2004). Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: Implications for Bangladesh. Environmental Management, 34(4), 487-498.

Global Climate Risk Index (2019). Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2017 and 1998 to 2017. Retrieved from

Goswami, B., Mahi, G.S., & Saikia, U.S. (2006). Effect of few important climatic factors on phenology, growth, and yield of rice and wheat-a review. Agricultural Reviews, 27(3), 223-228.

Govt. of Bangladesh, & UNDP. (2009). The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options of Coping with Adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Govt. of Bangladesh. Retrieved 10 September 2019 from

Govt. of Bangladesh. (2009). Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2009. Dhaka: Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh.

Gujarati, D.N. (2007). Basic Econometrics (4th ed.). Newdelhi: Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Limited.

Kabir, H. (2015). Impacts of climate change on rice yield and variability: An analysis of disaggregate level in the southwestern part of Bangladesh especially Jessore and Sathkhira districts. Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters, 5(3), 1-9. doi:10.4172/2167-0587.1000148.

Karim, M., Ishikawa, I., & Islam, M. (2012). Climate change model predicts 33 % rice yield decrease in 2100 in Bangladesh. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 32(4), 821–830, doi: 10.1007/s13593-012-0096-7.

Maddala, G.S. (1992). Introduction to Econometrics (2nd ed.). New York: Macmillan Publishing Company.

Montgomery,D.C., Peak, E.A., & Vining, G.G. (2003). Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis (3rd ed.). Singapore: John Wiley and Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.

Rahaman, K.M., Ahmed, F.R.S., & Islam, M.N. (2016). Modeling on climate induced drought of north-western region, Bangladesh. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2(1), 1-21.

Sarker, M.A., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2012). Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data. Agricultural Systems, 112, 11-16.

Sarker, M.A.R., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2019). Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 34(4), 304-312. Cambridge University Press. https://do 42170517000473

Sikder, R., & Xiaoying, J. (2014). Climate change impact and agriculture of Bangladesh. Journal of Environment and Earth Science, 4(1), 35-40.

World Bank. (2000). Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Rural Development Unit, South Asia Region, World Bank. Report No. 21104-BD.

Zakaria, M., Aziz, M., Hossain, M., & Rahman, N. (2014). Effects of rainfall and maximum temperature on Aman rice production of Bangladesh: A case study for last decade. International Journal of Science and Technology, 3(2), 131-137.
How to Cite
Hasan Manik, M. M., Alam, M. T., & Hossain, M. S. (2020). Climate Change and Aman Rice Yield Nexus in the North-Western Part of Bangladesh: Using Quantile Regression. Journal of Contemporary Issues and Thought, 10(1), 27-35. Retrieved from